Let’s begin with a brief “green” history of time from 1962 – 2009. It all started in 1962 with Rachel Carson’s book Silent Spring which many consider to have single-handedly spawned the dawn of the modern environmental movement. Global environmental summits were held in Stockholm (1972), Rio de Janeiro (1992), Johannesburg (2002), respectively called: United Nations Conference on Human Environment (1972), United Nations Conference on Environment and Development aka “Earth Summit” (1992) and Earth Summit (2002).
In “Rio,” the international environmental treaty entitled the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted. Provisions to update the treaty are called Protocols. The Kyoto Protocol is the main update which became more renowned than the UNFCCC itself thanks to the non-ratifying parties.
UNFCCC “Conferences of the Parties” have been held in The Hague (2000), Bonn (2001), Marrakech (2001), Montreal (2005), Bali (2007), Vienna (2007), Poland (2008).
COPENHAGEN IS COMING! UNFCCC’s 2009 meeting in Copenhagen is almost upon us!
WHY ALL THE EXCITEMENT? Three key reasons:
The world is more than ready to move beyond Kyoto which entered into force in 2005. Although 183 parties/countries ratified the Kyoto Protocol (as of 2009), major world players have not: China, India and USA.
An Inconvenient Truth, the fabulously sensationalist documentary, the worldwide movie blockbuster by Al Gore took the entire world’s hearts and minds by its own kind of environmental storm. And yes, we must not forget that he shared his 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is a United Nations’ network of scientists.
But wait, another major reason for the exciting buzz surrounding Copenhagen…There is a high level of hope from the world at large, that the new U.S. government administration, circa 2009, will propel the potential of the UNFCCC to the next necessary levels and inspire all countries worldwide to proactively participate with fewer conditions and objections for the sake of humanity and all inhabitants of our only collective home.
Yes, what is about to materialize (hopefully) in Copenhagen has been five decades in the making. If we extrapolate the progress to date to another five decades ahead of us, how certain are we that it will not be too late? How certain can we be that within the next five decades the world temperature will not rise on average by 2 degrees Celsius when there could be a systemic collapse of the world’s environmental ecosystem? Forty-seven environment, science and faith-based groups came together in coalition (summer 2009) and sent President Obama a letter about these seemingly minute 2 degrees. We are DECADES OVERDUE for a major overhaul of business as usual.
In politics, compromise is key. THE GOAL in Copenhagen is a legally-binding international environmental agreement that: limits greenhouse gas emissions, better ensures implementation of the agreement (clean development mechanism, joint implementation and emissions trading), increases compliance/accounting/reporting measures and minimizes impacts on developing countries (funds for their adaptation).
Will an agreement “struck” in Copenhagen be enough to pre-empt an unimaginable world calamity? This definitely depends on whether China, India and the USA make concessions to agree and ratify an agreement with acceptable terms. Developing countries which comprise 90% of the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions need to be well-accounted for as a part of the agreement. According to the Swiss Re report published just last week: “Climate risks could cost nations up to 19% of GDP by 2030, with developing nations most vulnerable.” When developing nations’ economies suffer dramatically, there is a global environmental security issue, unprecedented severe mass migrations as we have not seen for centuries. “No one wants to stay put to die” is how Stephen Kass, who spoke at a Sustainability Practice Network NYC (SPN) event last week, put it bluntly. Mr Kass has practiced environmental law since the 1970s. We cannot be sure about what may happen, but in Copenhagen, we better do our darndest to keep human kind and all living organisms from unimaginable suffering or even mass extinction.
WILL MARKET MECHANISMS SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT?
Undoubtedly, there is a lot of optimistic interest over how the market can help the world reach environmental sustainability goals. There are differing views on this matter. Based on the speakers in last week’s SPN NYC event, the environmental dream team panelists’ views:
Nat Keohane of the Environmental Defense Fund: The market mechanism (“cap and trade” of emissions/credits beyond imposed limits) will be key to the future of reducing greenhouse gases by countries, regions, industry. The market was highly successful for reducing acid rain (sulfer dioxide) and made it an environmental non-issue thereafter. Why not for greenhouse gases?
Stephen Kass of Carter, Ledyard & Millburn LLP: Cap and trade is not a substitute for other methods and cannot be relied on to be the sole solution: Co2 gases are a much bigger and complicated problem than sulfer dioxide. And, very importantly: Can we rely on third party verifications of a market system by accounting firms or government bureaucrats? He gave an example of complementary solution. A carbon tax could work well, but taxation is likely not going to happen especially in the U.S. because the word “tax” is involved!
Doug Cogan the Director of Climate Change Research at Risk Metrics: He believes that strong focus innovation research and entrepreneurship can propel us to the next level and developing countries like China and India can make the jump quickly beyond the current generation of technology to that which does not cause current levels of pollution (like Africa which “leapfrogged” over landline phones directly to cell phones).
Doug Cogan also reminded the SPN NYC event audience about the renowned 700-page Stern Report of 2006 which discusses the effect of climate change and global warming on the world economy. He also made note of his company’s survey research report published just last week about the preparedness of financial institutions in developing/emerging countries to be integrated into the greenhouse emissions cap and trade system.
What in the view of these recent SPN NYC event speakers is THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT THE U.S. CAN DO for the upcoming round of negotiations in Copenhagen?
It is to PASS DOMESTIC LEGISLATION BEFORE COPENHAGEN on the environment, the Climate Bill. But are we already too late? The eyes of the American public and federal government rest heavily on the issue of healthcare while the Climate Bill legislation is put on the backburner probably until the end of this year or the beginning of next year. This means that there is a higher chance that there could be a repeat of what happened with Kyoto, where the U.S. negotiators in Copenhagen “come home” to the U.S. with an agreement that the U.S. Senate rejects. In fact, they rejected Kyoto unanimously in 1997 namely noting that it would be deleterious to the U.S. economy.
BUT THERE IS HOPE. We cannot rest our laurels on the agreement coming out of Copenhagen this December 2009. Bilateral agreements in addition to the UNFCCC Copenhagen agreement should play a critical role. China and the U.S., which together contribute 50% of the world’s harmful greenhouse gas emissions could come to a bilateral solution e.g. the U.S. could also work with friendly ally Brazil on trade policy, corn-based fuel and deforestation.
COPENHAGEN 2009: The world is watching. We have a COMMON RESPONSIBILITY as stewards of this earth. I am optimistic that we the world, governments and individuals have the answer to move beyond the issue of harmful greenhouse gases, even within our lifetime. You can do your part right now, by signing the United Nations campaign petition and adding your photo in the world mosaic as a supporter to “Seal the Deal” in Copenhagen.
www.sealthedeal2009.org