Where is Alternative Energy Headed?
If you had money to spend in these difficult economic times, it sure would be nice to know where the energy industry was going to end up 10, 20, 30 years from now and invest that money there. With hundreds of billions of dollars being sent overseas to purchase crude oil, when the tide changes to domestically generated energy, there is going to be money to be made. If you pick the right horse to ride now, you will be well off in the not too distant future.
I have been conducting, for several months, an unscientific survey of numerous articles, discussions with industry experts, and learning everything I can about the industry. I thought it would be fun to set forth a suggestion as one possible theory regarding the future of US energy needs. Please chime in with yours, or correct me where you think I have gone astray:
1. We have reached a level of critical mass whereby sticking with crude oil is unacceptable for the future of America. Continuing to rely on crude oil will negatively impact our national security (pumping dollars to enemy regimes), our environment (pumping CO2 into the atmosphere), and our economy (pumping jobs overseas instead of creating new ones here by investing in domestic technologies).
2. That said, it will take time before we are significantly less reliant on crude oil, as compared to our current situation.
3. In the short term, therefore, we will expand drilling in the US and continue to use alternative energy techologies that have begun to show progress, like geothermal plants, use of solar power, wind generators where appropriate, etc. These steps will, in the short term, decrease our reliance on foreign crude. These steps will also buy time until we can significantly lower our overall dependence on crude oil because of the emergence of other technologies.
4. In preparation for the long term, we should continue to invest in research and implementation of all forms of alternative energy, including biofuels, geothermal, wind, solar, and hydro. Over time, one or more of these technologies will, through innovation, rise to the top. Solar might be most efficient in powering homes, wind at powering certain areas of the country, and biofuels at fueling the airline industry, so no single solution needs to be adopted, but the free market should sort out the best technologies from unfeasible technologies. When this happens, the US will have high electricity capacity.
5. Also long term, I predict that automobiles will be plugged into the energy grid. Coal being our most abundant resource, clean coal technologies and expanded use of nuclear power will enable the US to transform from a mostly crude oil-based automotive industry to considerable reliance on electricity. These forms of electricity will buy more time to develop large scale energy sources from the other alternative energy choices, mentioned above.
In sum, it is my prediction that our energy path will push us to be more reliant on electricity versus crude oil. To get there, we will need to continue to support our current crude oil needs by more domestic production and incremental advances in alternative energy that will help (just not on a large scale, yet). That will buy us time to convert our automobiles over to electricity that is supplied by clean coal and nuclear power. The use of clean coal and nuclear power will, in turn, buy us even more time until the other forms of alternative energy are perfected and can provide large scale electricity production.
What do you think?
